A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

Sustainable Tourism: Ethical Alternative or Marketing Ploy?

While tourism is often seen as a welcome source of economic development, conventional mass tourism is associated with numerous negative effects, such as the destruction of ecological systems and loss of cultural heritage. In response to these concerns, a term that has surfaced recently is, sustainable tourism. This article attempts to define sustainable tourism and asks the question of whether this new term is an acceptable criteria or is merely a marketing ploy to attract the morally conscious tourist. Paul Lansing is a professor of Business Administration at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He received a J.D. Degree and a Graduate Degree in International Business. Paul De Vries received an M.Sc BA, in Strategic Management from the Rotterdam School of Management, RSM Erasmus University.     

Structuring an effective human error intervention strategy selection model for commercial aviation

Flight safety cannot be compromised. Thus, commercial airlines should constantly develop safety management strategies to mitigate the diverse hazardous factors in flight operations. Given the constraint of organizational resource, a commercial airline may not have sufficient resources to implement all the necessary strategies simultaneously. This study uses a well-structured process to develop a qualitative evaluation model that will enable airlines to identify human errors and select an intervention strategy with the highest success potential. To clarify the decision problem, the Human Factors Intervention Matrix framework is utilized to construct the decision hierarchy. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to attain the priorities of potential alternative strategies for various unsafe acts. Finally, Zero-One Goal Programming models are formulated to select an optimal portfolio based on the specific target and the available organizational resources. An empirical study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model. According to the results of the combined model, an optimal portfolio, including the intervention approaches of organizational/administrative, human/crew, and operational/physical environment, can remediate four unsafe acts, namely, decision errors, skill-based errors, perceptual errors, and violations, under resource constraints of the organization.     

目击证人的错误记忆与刑事司法公正刍论

目击证人的证言对于刑事案件的破解和刑事诉讼活动有非常重要的意义，但需要注意的是目击者的错误记忆在多种因素作用下对案件会有不当影响，针对不同案件类型有不同的表现方式。这就需要我们对目击证人的证言在法庭鉴证、程序规则、证据链条方面更严谨细致地予以审查和判断，从而实现刑事司法的正义价值追求。     

浅析会计信息失真问题

当前经济生活中存在比较严重的会计信息失真现状,其原因主要在于：两权分离,产权不明晰;政治利益和经济利益的驱动;监督体制的缺陷;会计制度和会计准则的滞后性;会计从业人员素质参差不齐。针对这些现象,应该逐步建立和完善现代企业制度;加强内部监督和外部监督;加快完善会计制度和会计准则;培养高素质的会计从业人员。     

论《物权法》中非依法律行为引起的物权变动

法定非依法律行为可以引起物权消极变动的效力,但出于交易安全考虑,事后进行备案宣示登记是必要的,整体结构安排要和积极变动的登记程序相协调.我国物权法实施过程中应明确规定对因非依法律行为引起的物权变动应该进行登记,考虑对类似强制执行、遗赠扶养协议的受遗赠等特殊情况,在立法上作出一些例外规定.同时,对基于非依法律行为引起的物权变动程序应作出一些具体的规定.     

拒绝言语行为的礼貌问题研究

由于拒绝言语行为具有潜在的面子威胁性。拒绝言语行为有直接拒绝和间接拒绝。拒绝言语行为的间接性与礼貌之间存在正态关联。社会权力和社会距离也影响对拒绝言语行为的实施。     

Proportional Odds Models with High‐Dimensional Data Structure

The proportional odds model is the most widely used model when the response has ordered categories. In the case of high‐dimensional predictor structure, the common maximum likelihood approach typically fails when all predictors are included. A boosting technique pomBoost is proposed to fit the model by implicitly selecting the influential predictors. The approach distinguishes between metric and categorical predictors. In the case of categorical predictors, where each predictor relates to a set of parameters, the objective is to select simultaneously all the associated parameters. In addition, the approach distinguishes between nominal and ordinal predictors. In the case of ordinal predictors, the proposed technique uses the ordering of the ordinal predictors by penalizing the difference between the parameters of adjacent categories. The technique has also a provision to consider some mandatory predictors (if any) that must be part of the final sparse model. The performance of the proposed boosting algorithm is evaluated in a simulation study and applications with respect to mean squared error and prediction error. Hit rates and false alarm rates are used to judge the performance of pomBoost for selection of the relevant predictors.     

我国无效婚姻立法之问题疏理与破解路径

我国无效婚姻的立法不完善，是实务案件审理难的主要症结。未来立法修改时，应当增设原则规范，以弥补类型列举的疏漏；明确对过错方的责任认定和对无过错方的损害赔偿；检察院参与诉讼，保证无被申请人的诉讼中各方利益关系人的合法权益；区分婚姻不成立与婚姻的无效和可撤销。同时，加快家事诉讼立法，以统一的、专门的程序处理包括无效婚姻和可撤销婚姻在内的婚姻家庭纠纷。     

顾颉刚档案史料思想探略

顾颉刚先生是我国近现代著名的历史学家,“古史辨”派的创始人。其一生著述丰硕,涉及古史考辨、民俗学研究、历史地理学研究等学科领域。不仅提出了著名“层累地造成的中国古史”的理论,并在档案史料的搜集、考证、辨伪及应用等方面也提出了许多独到的见解,至今仍是史学工作者及档案工作者的宝贵财富。